Monday, February 06, 2017

Opposing Trump - Opposing Brexit

Why Theresa May is pandering to Trump

Theresa May’s negotiating position means that it will next to impossible for a Brexit deal with the EU that allows Britain to remain part of the single market. Along with tha will be exclusion from the deals that the EU has made with 55 other countries. Even membership of the WTO is not guaranteed. Britain has the benefits of the WTO regime due to its membership of the EU and its immediate admission as a member in its own right is not automatic.
However the US has a GDP only slightly less than that of the EU so a trade deal with the US would be a big consultation prize.

Deals with Trump do not end well

The treatment of the students of the former Trump “university” and his refusal to ensure that he is free from conflicts of interest do not bode well for the honesty of the Trump Presidency. Trump words are hostile to trade deals and with the the killing off of the Trans Pacific Partnership so are his actions. Trump doesn’t grasp the idea of win-win. May may well find that any deal that suits Trump will be a scam.

Endorsing Trump is a Gamble

Trump has little tolerance for dissent and shows no respect for the law courts. The 2016 election was marked with major voter suppression. Trump’s choice for Attorney General Jeff Sessions is signal that he intends to make it even harder for Americans to exercise their right to vote.
On the other hand, Trump is already breaking records for unpopularity. Demonstrations and small scale protests are intensifying.
The future of America is unpredictable – a Putin style suppression of democracy or a lurch in favor of a reform government that will undo everything that Trump has done are both possibilities. Tying Britain’s future to the fate of a regime that may be short lived and equally may move in a direction that violates our values – both British and American is reckless. But Brexit narrows Britain’s options especially if we follow May in excluding ourselves from the single market. To take the side of those Americans opposing Trump we need to take a stand against the anti-EU path Theresa May has chosen.